Saylor and team overhaul Strategy's bitcoin metrics as bear market persists

Saylor and team overhaul Strategy's bitcoin metrics as bear market persists

New framework gives common shareholders a clearer view of net bitcoin exposure after preferred stock and convertible debt obligations

Strategy’s net reserve stands at $36.6 billion after subtracting $6.8 billion of out-of-the-money convertible debt and $15.5 billion of preferred stock from its bitcoin and cash reserves. The revised mNAV permanently sets the equity issuance threshold at 1.0x, while a 3.22% BTC breakeven ARR would allow bitcoin gains to cover interest and preferred dividend obligations indefinitely.

Strategy (MSTR), the biggest corporate holder of bitcoin, has created a new market metrics framework, replacing gross BTC-based figures with net equivalents that take out the company's growing preferred stock and convertible debt obligations. The purpose of the new framework is to give common equity holders a more transparent overview of the company’s position. The metric overhaul is part of a broader pattern, with Strategy repeatedly refining its guidance over the past year as it grapples with a bear market that began in October. The company’s flagship preferred stock, STRC, trades near $85 and has not returned to its intended $100 par value since mid-May.Bitcoin is currently trading at roughly $65,000, 50% below its all-time high, while MSTR sits 84% below its November 2024 peak.

The first metric is the new "Net Reserve", which currently sits at $36.6 billion. That figure takes Strategy's $55.6 billion BTC reserve (843,775 BTC), adds $3.2 billion in USD reserves, then subtracts $6.8 billion in out-of-the-money convertible debt and $15.5 billion in notional preferred, the $22.3 billion in senior claims that rank ahead of common shareholders in any liquidation scenario.The company has also updated its multiple to net asset value (mNAV) formula. Under the old accounting method, the accretion threshold would usually keep the company’s mNAV above 1.0x, making it increasingly difficult to know whether new share issuance was actually beneficial for existing holders. The new formula anchors that threshold permanently at 1.0x — if MSTR trades above it, issuing new shares adds BTC per share for all investors.

According to the company, the formula is: MSTR Price, divided by Net Bitcoin Per Share, representing whether MSTR trades above or below Net Bitcoin Per Share after debt and preferred claims.The BTC Floor ARR is the minimum sustained BTC growth rate over the credit structure's duration before restructuring becomes a consideration for the company. Currently, the BTC Breakeven ARR sits at 3.22%, meaning bitcoin only needs to appreciate faster than that rate annually for Strategy to fund all interest and dividend obligations through BTC gains alone, in perpetuity.Strategy has also introduced new bitcoin market metrics, such as the premium to the 200-week moving average and the Fear and Greed Index.

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Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation

Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

Why it matters:

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

Brazilian farmers tokenized dairy cows to get loans, bypassing bank lending limits

A $5 billion cluster has formed in bitcoin options. It tells a bullish story

Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market