CumberlandYour day-ahead look for July 31, 2026
Bitcoin $60,000 put leads the pack as mood swings bearish for August
Your day-ahead look for July 31, 2026
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
As July ends, the options market is reflecting a major shift in positioning. The $60,000 bitcoin BTC$63,664.30 put option, a position protecting against a price drop, is now the most popular bet on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange. As of this writing, that put had a notional open interest of $1.17 billion.
Traders buy puts to hedge against market declines. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell below $60,000 late last month, only to stage a recovery to $63,000 and higher in recent days.
What’s notable is that until yesterday, call options, or bullish bets, at strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000, were the most popular, each boasting a notional open interest of $2.5 billion. That was the result of heavy call buying in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Essentially, some traders were betting the price would rise as high as $72,000 after the U.S. central bank’s interest-rate decision.
That didn’t happen, and probably catalyzed the closure of those bets during Friday’s 08:00 UTC expiry, which settled BTC and ether (ETH) options worth $10 billion. Notional open interest on the $70,000 call has fallen to $943 million, and on the $72,000 call to $888 million. While still significant, those levels are well below the $60,000 put.
Another interesting data point comes from seasonality. Since 2013, July has produced a median return of 8.61%. The price has risen by 8.9% this month, according to CoinDesk data. So far, so unexciting. But a positive July is usually followed by a negative August, producing a median return of -7.51%.
Median is useful here because it shows the typical outcome without being skewed by unusually large gains or losses that can distort the average. In markets like bitcoin, where a few extreme months can pull the mean up or down, the median often gives a cleaner read on what has happened most often.
That means the mood is bearish for BTC as we head into August. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep (CoinDesk): Roughly 594 bitcoin, worth about $38 million, was swept out of around 500 wallets on Friday in an attack traced to a flaw in how Coldcard hardware wallets generated their keys. Treasury yields follow oil prices lower as investors await fresh economic data (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields followed oil prices lower on signs of a recovery in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for easing Middle East tensions. South Korea’s Kospi index jumps nearly 18% on a surge in chipmaking stocks (AP): South Korea’s Kospi equity benchmark jumped on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street as artificial intelligence-related stocks rebounded after losses earlier in the week. U.S. stock index futures rose and oil prices fell.
Today’s signal
The chart shows the distribution of notional open interest in bitcoin options at various strike price levels across a range of expiry dates.
Notional open interest refers to the dollar value of the number of active or open contracts, with one contract representing one BTC.
The $60,000 put, or protection against a price decline, is the new leader with an OI built up of $1.17 billion. The recent leaders, the $70,000 and $72,000 calls, have slipped lower in rankings.
1Dubai-based crypto exchange tied to $4 billion Iran sanctioned-evasion network7 minutes ago 2World Cup bets smash records as prediction markets hit $20 billion in volume34 minutes ago 3U.S. sanctions Iran-linked bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships36 minutes ago 4Bitcoin, ether fall, equities rally with broader crypto market on track for best month in a year1 hour ago 5New York sues Kalshi, alleges it offers a gambling platform 'plain and simple'2 hours ago 6Quantum Solutions, Hyperscale Data tap crypto treasuries to fund AI data centers3 hours ago 7Bitcoin’s calm is back and so is the setup for a volatility explosion4 hours ago 8Live updates: Bitcoin slides back below $64,000 as Nasdaq continues rally4 hours ago 9Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as Kospi's record 17% surge leaves crypto untouched6 hours ago 10Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains $38 million worth of BTC in 25-minute sweep7 hours ago
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